Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:54:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
81 0x81f8…4078 sports 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,714 (+26%) realized +$1,714 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate82%55W / 12L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$135est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$368
7 days+$558
14 days+$832
30 days+$1,710
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$1,628
other 9% +$92
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +15.1% +4.1% 89% 67% +22.9%
≤30d 66 +49.3% +35.1% 82% 52% +15.4%
≤90d 67 +48.6% +34.4% 82% 51% +15.4%
all 67 +48.6% +34.4% 82% 51% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.4% 51% +15.4%
10% +21.6% 37% +4.3%
15% +9.8% 27% -5.7%
20% -0.9% 13% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +78% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$5 · ×6.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×27.52 per $1 lost it wins $27.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,714
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses55 / 12
Est. fees paid−$135
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage30d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $345 +$44 +13%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $100 +$7 +7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $448 +$249 +56%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $192 +$68 +36%
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $33 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $35 +$9 +26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $228 +$104 +46%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $165 +$85 +51%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $160 −$6 -4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $329 +$127 +39%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $95 +$7 +7%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $86 +$9 +11%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $102 −$16 -16%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $148 +$83 +56%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $217 +$70 +32%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $5 −$3 -69%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $85 +$3 +3%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $208 +$76 +36%
San Marino vs. Bangladesh: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $85 +$1 +1%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $84 +$9 +11%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $226 −$6 -2%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $80 +$29 +37%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $11 −$10 -96%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $159 +$2 +1%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $224 +$59 +26%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $27 +$63 +233%
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5 May 31 $124 +$317 +256%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 3.5 May 31 $155 +$37 +24%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 4.5 May 31 $75 +$1 +1%
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 3.5 May 31 $75 +$8 +10%
Switzerland vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 May 31 $150 +$1 +1%
Avaí FC vs. Criciúma EC: O/U 3.5 May 31 $128 +$4 +3%
SC Recife vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 2.5 May 31 $75 +$12 +16%
CR Flamengo vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $78 +$1 +2%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $83 +$13 +16%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia: O/U 0.5 May 30 $75 +$1 +1%
Henan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $11 +$2 +22%
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 0.5 May 28 $17 +$5 +29%
Club Bolívar vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 3.5 May 28 $67 +$9 +14%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $212 $0 -0%
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 0.5 May 27 $8 +$4 +57%
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 1.5 May 27 $70 +$1 +1%
São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 2.5 May 26 $109 +$58 +53%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 1.5 May 26 $46 +$20 +44%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 1.5 May 26 $49 +$1 +3%
Botafogo FC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5 May 25 $58 +$22 +37%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5 May 24 $86 +$12 +14%
Clube do Remo vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5 May 24 $65 −$3 -4%
CS Huancayo vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 4.5 May 24 $15 +$43 +296%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 81¢ $170 20m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 81¢ $162 20m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 81¢ $10 20m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 81¢ $47 20m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $4 22m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $44 22m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $64 22m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $36 23m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $100 23m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $98 23m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $106 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $18 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $21 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $61 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 79¢ $350 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 79¢ $181 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 79¢ $87 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 79¢ $79 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $19 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $73 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 43¢ $85 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $40 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $12 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $39 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $96 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 45¢ $81 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 39¢ $260 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 27¢ $99 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 435 history records