Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:31:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
81 0x81f6…4488 crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,935 (-20%) realized −$10,223 · open +$288
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%32W / 29L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$782per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,755now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,042
7 days+$1,042
14 days−$2,478
30 days−$3,605
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$6,675
sports 14% −$2,466
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +23.1% +11.3% 67% 67% +24.2%
≤30d 31 +6.4% -3.7% 52% 45% -25.6%
≤90d 43 -0.4% -9.9% 53% 47% -28.3%
all 61 -6.6% -15.5% 52% 46% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 46% -27.9%
10% -23.6% 39% -34.8%
15% -31.0% 33% -41.1%
20% -37.8% 28% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$382 vs −$746 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$2,755
Realized−$10,223
Unrealized+$288
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses32 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage92d
Avg bet$782
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 64¢ 72¢ $2,466 $2,755 +$289 (+12%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 29 $1,343 +$1,134 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $737 +$625 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $741 −$717 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $184 −$176 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$155 +513%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $572 −$563 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $322 +$248 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $348 −$338 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $751 −$725 -96%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,078 −$2,050 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $1,022 +$445 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $873 +$765 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,027 −$1,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $1,023 +$455 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $747 +$696 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $182 −$175 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $98 +$84 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $521 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $156 +$462 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $91 +$67 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $672 −$650 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$15 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $309 −$309 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $439 −$426 -97%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $172 −$172 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $1,420 −$1,375 -97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,303 +$103 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $1,387 +$101 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $718 +$669 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $372 +$347 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $818 −$800 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 30 $721 −$721 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 30 $503 +$47 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 30 $261 +$403 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 30 $202 +$38 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 30 $521 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 09 $675 −$646 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 09 $800 −$770 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 09 $800 −$769 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 09 $800 +$125 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 09 $800 +$358 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 09 $800 +$186 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 09 $700 +$102 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 31 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 31 $196 −$188 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 31 $114 +$110 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 31 $59 +$55 +93%
Heat vs. Pacers Mar 31 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 31 $741 −$741 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 31 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 64¢ $2,493 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $498 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $846 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $364 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $319 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $313 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $294 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $184 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $30 11d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $572 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $322 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $154 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $193 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $751 12d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $2,078 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1,022 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $344 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $229 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $301 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $223 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $804 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $275 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $747 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $747 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $182 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $183 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $98 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $521 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,755.16 · official $2,870.76 · 148 history records