Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81f6…6cca crypto 301 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-5%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%157W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$20
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 -8.5% -17.2% 53% 53% -15.9%
≤30d 301 -7.4% -16.2% 52% 52% -15.2%
≤90d 301 -7.4% -16.2% 52% 52% -15.2%
all 301 -7.4% -16.2% 52% 52% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 52% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 51% -23.3%
15% -31.5% 48% -30.7%
20% -38.2% 42% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses157 / 144
Open positions0
Markets (closed)301 / 301
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 301 Trades
no open positions (143 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 474 history records