Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:53:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x81f0…0ea2
crypto · 168 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$2,794 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,780 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$98
Realized−$2,780
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses79 / 87
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)166 / 168
History coverage250d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 2 History 166 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30? Yes 59¢ 1¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Will Peloton Interactive (PTON) beat quarterly earnings? No 51¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on October 20? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on October 28? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? ETH 71¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 8? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 31? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on October 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 21? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 15? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on October 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will any AI reach $50k in Alpha Arena AI trading competition? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 5? Up 48¢ 0¢ $264 $0 −$264 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on October 31? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 22? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 10? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down on October 10? Up 60¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 20 $300 +$408 +136%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 4? Mar 11 $50 +$86 +170%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 25? Mar 04 $50 +$50 +100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 24? Feb 25 $50 +$50 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 24 $189 +$10 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 24? Feb 24 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Trump say "Middle East" during the 2026 State of the Union addres Feb 24 $103 −$103 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23? Feb 23 $50 −$50 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 10? Feb 23 $46 +$54 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 09 $50 +$47 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 5AM ET Feb 09 $300 −$178 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 09 $100 −$60 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 09 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 09 $200 −$76 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 09 $100 +$81 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 4AM ET Feb 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 09 $100 −$98 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 09 $59 −$51 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 3AM ET Feb 09 $150 −$132 -88%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? Feb 09 $135 +$23 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 09 $226 −$150 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 09 $250 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 09 $590 −$540 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 09 $50 +$53 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 09 $100 −$49 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 2AM ET Feb 09 $145 −$145 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 09 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 09 $50 +$50 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 9PM ET Feb 09 $74 +$76 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 09 $124 +$75 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 7AM ET Feb 09 $50 +$50 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 07 $282 +$362 +128%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 4AM ET Feb 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 07 $98 −$96 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 07 $95 −$94 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 3AM ET Feb 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 07 $53 −$52 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 6? Feb 07 $95 +$213 +225%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 06 $100 +$87 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 06 $100 +$89 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 3AM ET Feb 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 06 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 06 $50 +$43 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 06 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 2AM ET Feb 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 06 $50 +$47 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 06 $50 +$34 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 51% −$2,844
tech 19% −$133
finance 17% +$508
politics 5% −$552
other 4% −$142
sports 2% +$408
world 1% −$29
economics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 1h
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 57¢ $217 54d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 31¢ $355 62d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 89d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 94d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 4? BUY Up 37¢ $50 101d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 25? BUY Up 50¢ $50 108d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 24? BUY Up 50¢ $12 109d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 24? BUY Up 50¢ $38 109d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 24? BUY Up 54¢ $7 109d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 24? BUY Up 54¢ $47 109d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $39 109d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $50 109d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 109d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $38 109d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 109d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 109d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $37 109d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 109d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 109d
Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Unio BUY Yes 71¢ $103 109d
Will Trump say "Middle East" during the 2026 State of the Union addres BUY Yes 86¢ $103 109d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23? BUY Up 15¢ $50 110d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 10? BUY Up 46¢ $46 124d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $50 124d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 5AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $122 124d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 124d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 124d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 124d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +136.0% +113.5% 100% 100% +113.5%
all 166 -25.4% -32.5% 48% 36% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 36% -24.2%
10% -39.0% 22% -31.5%
15% -44.9% 19% -38.1%
20% -50.3% 19% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.21 · official $98.21 (match) · 444 history records