Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81f0…47ff other 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%13W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$7
other 33% −$1
politics 11% −$6
sports 6% $0
culture 6% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.9% -12.1% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 15 -2.2% -11.6% 40% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 15 -2.2% -11.6% 40% 0% -8.4%
all 59 -1.1% -10.5% 22% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses13 / 46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage267d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $54 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $46 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 -19%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $12 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $103 +$3 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $20 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $44 +$3 +8%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $2 −$1 -34%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $66 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 27 $22 −$4 -17%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $80 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 05 $25 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Oct 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $6 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 30 $21 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 30 $22 −$2 -8%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $50 16m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $50 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $6 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $39 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $46 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 27h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $11 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 24d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $7 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $39 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $10 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $30 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $21 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $23 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $47 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 210 history records