Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81ef…5f9b sports 465 markets active 2d ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$163 (-3%) realized −$163 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%249W / 216L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$193
14 days−$223
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$226
crypto 11% +$1
other 1% −$18
finance 1% −$1
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -13.7% -21.9% 48% 43% -29.9%
≤30d 113 -7.5% -16.3% 55% 48% -15.8%
≤90d 465 -4.0% -13.2% 54% 49% -13.4%
all 465 -4.0% -13.2% 54% 49% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 49% -13.4%
10% -21.5% 42% -21.7%
15% -29.1% 33% -29.2%
20% -36.0% 26% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses249 / 216
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)465 / 465
History coverage87d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 465 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 −$10 -29%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $31 +$4 +14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $24 +$7 +28%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $26 −$2 -6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$6 +30%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $14 +$6 +41%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 +$5 +59%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $12 −$1 -6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$11 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $90 −$32 -35%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $31 +$6 +20%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $17 −$1 -6%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$12 +118%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +50%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$3 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$3 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$1 -3%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $13 +$12 +88%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $32 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$14 -79%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$10 +68%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $59 −$12 -21%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$8 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $13 +$5 +40%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$6 +81%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $58 −$33 -58%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $36 −$16 -44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $40 −$31 -77%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $35 −$28 -79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $24 +$5 +20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$4 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $44 −$26 -58%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $107 −$4 -4%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $43 −$17 -38%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $17 −$6 -37%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $27 −$12 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $25 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 56¢ $25 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 77¢ $36 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 94¢ $35 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 82¢ $31 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $31 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 77¢ $24 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 55¢ $25 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $13 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $13 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $20 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 70¢ $14 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $14 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $9 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $5 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $3 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 44¢ $7 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 62¢ $10 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 63¢ $10 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 44¢ $12 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 45¢ $31 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 79¢ $56 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 62¢ $27 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 76¢ $33 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 59¢ $16 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 83¢ $31 4d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $22 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 3¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1256 history records