Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:03:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
81 0x81ee…2895 sports 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$566 (+26%) realized +$566 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%23W / 37L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days+$298
14 days+$231
30 days+$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$778
other 30% −$228
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +77.0% +60.1% 27% 27% +57.8%
≤30d 44 +44.4% +30.6% 36% 36% +17.8%
≤90d 60 +36.9% +23.9% 38% 35% +15.6%
all 60 +36.9% +23.9% 38% 35% +15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.9% 35% +15.6%
10% +12.0% 33% +4.6%
15% +1.2% 33% -5.5%
20% -8.7% 32% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +58% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$31 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$566
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses23 / 37
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions5
Markets (closed)60 / 65
History coverage64d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $73 $76 +$3 (+4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $73 $72 −$1 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 Over 62¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Norway to score first vs. France? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $150 −$148 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$63 +124%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 +$333 +650%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$179 +874%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$151 +1467%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +59%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$75 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$31 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $21 +$2 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 07 $74 +$40 +55%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $71 +$44 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $20 +$63 +307%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $47 +$40 +84%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $30 +$61 +206%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $36 −$35 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $29 −$28 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $143 −$140 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $9 −$5 -56%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $21 −$20 -97%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $21 −$20 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $31 +$136 +442%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 21m
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 22m
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 25m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $74 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $74 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $150 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 41h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 3d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 6d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 8d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 9d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 10d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 10d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 10d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 10d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 10d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $161 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 11d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $16 11d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 11d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $51 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.58 · official $195.58 (match) · 101 history records