Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81ed…59f5 other 359 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,667 (-21%) realized −$4,859 · open +$192
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%45W / 143L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$234est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2,313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,156
7 days−$4,030
14 days−$3,876
30 days−$4,139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$1,938
other 50% −$1,944
world 0% −$56
crypto 0% −$5
politics 0% −$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -21.8% -29.3% 22% 20% -29.4%
≤30d 188 -16.5% -24.5% 24% 22% -29.4%
≤90d 188 -16.5% -24.5% 24% 22% -29.4%
all 188 -16.5% -24.5% 24% 22% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 22% -29.4%
10% -31.7% 19% -36.2%
15% -38.3% 18% -42.4%
20% -44.3% 16% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$73 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$2,313
Realized−$4,859
Unrealized+$192
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses45 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$234
Open positions69
Markets (closed)188 / 359
History coverage123d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 69 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $700 $906 +$206 (+29%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 55¢ 100¢ $200 $363 +$163 (+82%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Canada 31¢ 96¢ $50 $155 +$105 (+210%)
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Canada 15¢ 84¢ $20 $113 +$93 (+463%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $80 $56 −$24 (-30%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $100 $36 −$64 (-64%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $60 $28 −$32 (-53%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Mexico 22¢ 24¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Mexico 8¢ 8¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $21 $12 −$9 (-44%)
Will Vinícius Jr. win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-58%)
Spread: Mexico (-3.5) Mexico 3¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 4¢ $50 $8 −$42 (-84%)
Will Bukayo Saka record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? Yes 63¢ 14¢ $30 $7 −$23 (-78%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Federico Valverde record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+44%)
Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 55¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+76%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $303 +$173 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $204 +$336 +165%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $46 −$45 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $230 −$225 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-4.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
James Rodríguez: 2+ goals Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $252 −$252 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $26 +$331 +1290%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $77 +$298 +388%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $483 +$546 +113%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-3.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-4.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $60 −$9 -14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $305 +$426 +139%
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $223 −$223 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $393 −$393 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $321 −$321 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $124 −$12 -10%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $479 −$40 -8%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $36 +$46 +128%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $263 −$48 -18%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $505 −$505 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Alessandro Schöpf: 2+ goals Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A Jun 17 $51 +$165 +323%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$80 +40%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$231 +114%
Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$94 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Canada 15¢ $21 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 31¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $302 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $203 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $403 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 100¢ $540 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $204 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 4h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 5h
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) BUY Czechia 6¢ $21 6h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Czechia 19¢ $20 6h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 42¢ $51 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 6h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 6h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 6h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Swit BUY 7¢ $2 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 7h
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) BUY Czechia 4¢ $21 7h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Czechia 11¢ $26 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 1¢ $1 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 2¢ $10 15h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw BUY 7¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Me BUY 2¢ $10 15h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mex BUY 5¢ $10 15h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $128 15h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Will Canada BUY 2¢ $15 15h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,313.41 · official $2,367.41 · 780 history records