trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +2.4% | -7.4% | 29% | 14% | -10.5% |
| ≤30d | 18 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 39% | 6% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 18 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 39% | 6% | -10.0% |
| all | 30 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 57% | 7% | -10.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.2% | 7% | -10.0% |
| 10% | -17.0% | 7% | -18.6% |
| 15% | -25.0% | 0% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -32.3% | 0% | -33.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | $47 | $47 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 23 | $87 | −$2 | -3% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $57 | −$2 | -4% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 23 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | Jun 20 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 19 | $95 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $3 | +$1 | +23% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 16 | $53 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 15 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $52 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $99 | +$1 | +1% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $48 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $94 | −$2 | -2% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 09 | $52 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 08 | $61 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 08 | $7 | $0 | +2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 05 | $8 | $0 | -3% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 04 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +24% |
| U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? | Mar 15 | $14 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? | Mar 15 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? | Mar 13 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Mar 13 | $13 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Chuck Schumer applaud during Trump's address to Congress? | Mar 06 | $13 | −$3 | -22% |
| Syracuse vs. SMU | Mar 06 | $16 | +$1 | +5% |