Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x81ed…6879
other · 228 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$561 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$607 · open −$46
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$74
Realized+$607
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses129 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions4
Markets (closed)224 / 228
History coverage250d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 4 History 224 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 52¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will the fight be won by submission? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 24¢ 6¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-73%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 Under 60¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? No 78¢ 0¢ $186 $0 −$186 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte (BO5) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Heroic 56¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 May 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $150 −$9 -6%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 09 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $94 +$6 +7%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte (BO5) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 26 $101 −$99 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 25 $100 +$101 +101%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Sharks (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 24 $100 +$49 +49%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $56 +$43 +76%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw Apr 19 $47 +$105 +223%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 17 $186 −$186 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $50 +$31 +62%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $5,933 +$37 +1%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $710 +$10 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 12 $171 +$3 +2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $989 +$4 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 12 $2,213 +$11 +0%
LoL: Dignitas vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Apr 11 $1,122 +$207 +18%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 10 $308 +$48 +15%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-28? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-28? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-02-21? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-21? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-01? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Hawks vs. 76ers Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Pistons Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-02-28? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 23? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-02-21? Apr 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: DashSkins vs Keyd (BO3) - PGL Astana: South American C Apr 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-13? Apr 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-02-23? Apr 07 $34 −$29 -86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-28? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Apr 07 $77 −$77 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs FaZe (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Gro Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 34% −$167
other 22% −$58
politics 19% +$283
world 9% +$15
sports 8% +$613
tech 7% +$82
economics 1% +$1
finance 0% −$184
culture 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 51m
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $51 51m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $101 27d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 5¢ $83 35d
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 73¢ $6 35d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 61¢ $109 35d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 39d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte (BO5) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs BUY Heroic 56¢ $101 48d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $100 49d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs BUY Monte 49¢ $100 50d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Sharks (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs BUY NIP 67¢ $41 51d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Sharks (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs BUY NIP 67¢ $10 51d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Sharks (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs BUY NIP 67¢ $49 51d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $56 55d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $50 56d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw BUY Yes 31¢ $47 56d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $200 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 78¢ $42 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 78¢ $7 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 78¢ $5 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 78¢ $35 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 78¢ $98 57d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A SELL Vitality 81¢ $81 60d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Vitality 50¢ $50 60d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 60d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 81¢ $25 62d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 81¢ $670 62d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 80¢ $194 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 60 -29.1% -35.8% 40% 28% -11.1%
all 224 -2.4% -11.7% 58% 35% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 35% -8.7%
10% -20.1% 30% -17.4%
15% -27.8% 25% -25.4%
20% -34.9% 21% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.63 · official $73.63 (match) · 1108 history records