Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:21:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
81 0x81ea…8b9a sports 455 markets active 0h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,875 (-3%) realized −$3,876 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%249W / 203L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$502est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$441
7 days+$997
14 days+$559
30 days+$1,566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$8,406
politics 6% +$3,536
other 5% +$612
crypto 0% +$373
world 0% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +1.4% -8.3% 58% 58% +5.2%
≤30d 111 +4.7% -5.2% 59% 59% -2.4%
≤90d 267 +2.8% -7.0% 55% 54% -16.0%
all 452 +0.3% -9.3% 55% 53% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 53% -12.6%
10% -18.0% 50% -21.0%
15% -25.9% 44% -28.6%
20% -33.2% 37% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$195 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$484
Realized−$3,876
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses249 / 203
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$502
Open positions3
Markets (closed)452 / 455
History coverage603d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) New Zealand 65¢ 66¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $182 $181 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $150 −$150 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $80 +$130 +163%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $170 +$134 +79%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $83 −$83 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $180 +$102 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $494 +$373 +75%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $150 +$48 +32%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $365 +$253 +69%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $169 +$83 +49%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $170 +$173 +102%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $258 +$189 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $196 −$196 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $150 +$123 +82%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $56 −$31 -56%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $451 +$161 +36%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $224 +$156 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $122 +$127 +104%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $106 −$3 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $98 +$15 +15%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $118 +$82 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $271 +$129 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $108 +$92 +85%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $72 +$28 +39%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $126 +$74 +59%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $76 +$24 +32%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $130 +$70 +54%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $130 +$70 +54%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $92 +$158 +170%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $130 +$220 +170%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $119 −$119 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $142 +$25 +18%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $167 +$47 +28%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$48 +32%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $100 13m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 65¢ $147 25m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 65¢ $53 26m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $184 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 56¢ $170 12h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 91¢ $81 14h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 91¢ $201 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $83 21h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 58¢ $180 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $200 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $80 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $294 24h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $100 25h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 65¢ $150 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $6 37h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 37h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 37h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 37h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $56 37h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $7 37h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 37h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $90 38h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $343 39h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 67¢ $68 42h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 67¢ $6 42h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 67¢ $10 42h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 67¢ $51 42h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 67¢ $4 42h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 67¢ $30 42h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $27 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $483.77 · official $483.77 (match) · 1981 history records