Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x81e9…1812
other · 348 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$4,124 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,467 · open +$442
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,872
Realized+$3,467
Unrealized+$442
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses195 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions34
Markets (closed)315 / 348
History coverage103d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 34 History 315 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$287
7 days−$589
14 days+$210
30 days+$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 52¢ 95¢ $249 $451 +$202 (+81%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $416 $423 +$7 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 56¢ 56¢ $417 $422 +$5 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 71¢ 100¢ $284 $398 +$114 (+40%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 56¢ $263 $381 +$118 (+45%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 70¢ 76¢ $348 $380 +$32 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 81¢ 90¢ $265 $296 +$31 (+12%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? No 85¢ 100¢ $236 $277 +$41 (+17%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $274 $276 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $221 $232 +$10 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 27¢ 26¢ $219 $206 −$13 (-6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 67¢ 81¢ $165 $201 +$36 (+22%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $150 $151 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $118 $120 +$2 (+1%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $104 $105 +$1 (+1%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $125 $85 −$40 (-32%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 44¢ 56¢ $59 $76 +$16 (+27%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 69¢ 97¢ $44 $62 +$18 (+41%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $58 $62 +$4 (+7%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 62¢ 72¢ $52 $60 +$8 (+15%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 41¢ 32¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 22¢ 39¢ $16 $28 +$12 (+77%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+51%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 43¢ 12¢ $71 $20 −$52 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $463 +$4 +1%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $78 −$76 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $230 −$144 -63%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $57 $0 +1%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $65 −$5 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 10 $9 $0 +5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $29 −$29 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 09 $3 $0 -10%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $13 −$5 -43%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 09 $346 +$216 +62%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $217 +$89 +41%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $64 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $382 −$266 -70%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $409 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $191 −$185 -97%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 06 $116 −$2 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $163 +$53 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 05 $42 −$42 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $382 +$18 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5,841 +$439 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $161 +$139 +86%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $182 +$33 +18%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $281 +$34 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $940 +$30 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $479 +$153 +32%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 01 $344 +$4 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $144 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1,486 −$155 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $111 +$94 +84%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 29 $333 +$50 +15%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 28 $200 +$25 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $991 −$115 -12%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $1,927 +$165 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $537 +$156 +29%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 21 $49 −$5 -9%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Romania win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Bulgaria win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $4 +$53 +1415%
Will Ukraine win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Greece win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $587 −$428 -73%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $278 −$25 -9%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $509 +$18 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% +$811
other 23% +$1,070
crypto 13% +$720
politics 8% +$566
sports 6% +$402
tech 5% +$265
finance 1% +$166
culture 1% −$63
economics 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 25¢ $22 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 25¢ $2 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 93¢ $28 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 93¢ $18 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 93¢ $48 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 93¢ $70 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 25¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 94¢ $188 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 25¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 25¢ $50 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 25¢ $51 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 93¢ $57 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 99¢ $172 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 99¢ $89 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 99¢ $96 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 99¢ $47 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 99¢ $79 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 92¢ $11 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 59¢ $13 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 59¢ $7 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 59¢ $6 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 59¢ $6 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 59¢ $24 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 59¢ $34 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 59¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -32.3% -38.8% 40% 15% -26.9%
≤30d 95 +13.8% +2.9% 55% 33% -7.5%
≤90d 258 +24.5% +12.6% 62% 41% -4.3%
all 315 +22.1% +10.4% 62% 44% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.4% 44% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -0.1% 32% -12.1%
15% -9.8% 26% -20.6%
20% -18.6% 20% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,872.01 · official $4,876.01 (match) · 3500 history records