Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:41:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81e7…7389 other 362 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$430 (+4%) realized +$377 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate42%128W / 180L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$2,019now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$126
14 days+$156
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$263
politics 16% +$30
weather 12% +$19
tech 8% +$81
sports 7% −$6
culture 0% −$12
world 0% −$5
finance 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -30.8% -37.3% 38% 10% -4.4%
≤30d 229 -40.8% -46.4% 35% 8% -8.0%
≤90d 308 -31.2% -37.8% 42% 9% -6.1%
all 308 -31.2% -37.8% 42% 9% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 9% -6.1%
10% -43.7% 7% -15.1%
15% -49.2% 6% -23.3%
20% -54.1% 4% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$2,019
Realized+$377
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses128 / 180
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions54
Markets (closed)308 / 362
History coverage76d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 308 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $682 $631 −$51 (-7%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 21¢ 22¢ $197 $209 +$12 (+6%)
Databricks vs Salesforce - higher valuation on June 30? Databricks 50¢ 58¢ $176 $204 +$28 (+16%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $83 $80 −$3 (-4%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? No 60¢ 64¢ $64 $68 +$4 (+6%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 22¢ 47¢ $22 $47 +$25 (+110%)
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B? No 74¢ 76¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+3%)
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? No 94¢ 92¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will OpenAI have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes 92¢ 89¢ $46 $44 −$2 (-3%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31? Yes 15¢ 37¢ $17 $43 +$26 (+147%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 52¢ $56 $39 −$17 (-30%)
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31? Yes 18¢ 61¢ $11 $36 +$26 (+239%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by June 30? No 70¢ 70¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 75¢ 83¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+10%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31? Yes 12¢ 52¢ $7 $32 +$24 (+338%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in June? No 80¢ 95¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+19%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 46¢ 31¢ $46 $31 −$15 (-33%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10B by December 31? Yes 47¢ 92¢ $14 $29 +$14 (+98%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June? No 86¢ 96¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+12%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $165B by June 30? No 57¢ 65¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+14%)
Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $16B? No 58¢ 76¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+31%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No 51¢ 57¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 55.0 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +50%
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $96 +$3 +3%
Will Stripe have the third highest private market valuation on June 30 Jun 13 $202 +$2 +1%
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $39 −$10 -25%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor Jun 13 $41 −$1 -3%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $199 +$9 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $19 $0 -2%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $56 −$12 -22%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Paraguay FI Jun 13 $72 −$9 -13%
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor Jun 13 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor Jun 13 $125 +$14 +11%
Will the announcers say "Dangerous" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wo Jun 13 $45 −$5 -10%
Will the announcers say "History" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $79 +$21 +27%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the USA vs Paraguay FI Jun 12 $8 −$6 -80%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10B by June 30? Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -79%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $51 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $93 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 102-103°F on Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $46 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "College" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Trump say "Star" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 104-105°F on Jun 11 $0 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 106°F or higher on Ju Jun 11 $0 $0 -34%
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da Jun 11 $91 +$58 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -1%
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by June 30? Jun 11 $102 +$14 +14%
Will PPI YoY be between 4.0% and 4.9% in May? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C or higher on June Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 10? Jun 11 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 56m
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 58m
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $7 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY No 21¢ $6 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY No 21¢ $0 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY No 21¢ $0 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY No 21¢ $0 1h
Will William Saliba be in France's Starting 11? BUY No 9¢ $2 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $145 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY No 21¢ $0 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY No 21¢ $0 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY No 21¢ $0 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY No 21¢ $4 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY No 22¢ $48 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 21¢ $3 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $26 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY No 21¢ $22 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY No 21¢ $87 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $292 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $60 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? SELL Yes 95¢ $9 2h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $54 3h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $14 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 5h
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 6h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 8h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $28 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,018.84 · official $2,018.65 (match) · 1642 history records