Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
81 0x81e4…8ec2 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$11
sports 44% +$21
world 5% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +7.3% -2.9% 57% 57% -9.8%
≤30d 21 +7.3% -2.9% 57% 57% -9.8%
≤90d 21 +7.3% -2.9% 57% 57% -9.8%
all 21 +7.3% -2.9% 57% 57% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 57% -9.8%
10% -12.2% 57% -18.4%
15% -20.7% 57% -26.3%
20% -28.5% 48% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$34 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage6d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Over 62¢ 61¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$17 +86%
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $26 +$54 +206%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$8 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$22 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 +$14 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 11h
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $3 11h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $80 11h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $26 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $35 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $40 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $30 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 3d
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $15 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.32 · official $79.32 (match) · 36 history records