Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:51:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x81e4…743e
sports · 2014 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$644 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39
Realized−$644
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses1386 / 735
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions12
Markets (closed)2121 / 2014
History coverage147d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 12 History 2121 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$593
7 days−$592
14 days−$575
30 days−$589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $25B? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 82¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 92¢ 89¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 74¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Mauricio Ruffy 84¢ 81¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 96¢ 95¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Bo Nickal 75¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 61¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
VfB Stuttgart vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5 Over 71¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5 Over 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
FC Andorra vs. SD Eibar: O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Lowe's (LOW) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-02-22? No 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Timberwolves: O/U 220.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
AFC Ajax vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Nets vs. 76ers Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Como 1907 vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Athletic Club vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Manchester United vs. Everton: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SD Huesca win on 2025-12-12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Fenerbahce vs. Barcelona Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Bayern München (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-01-18? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod win on 2025-11-29? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 16? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2025-11-18? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-01-04? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-12-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Knicks Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Clippers vs. Pistons Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase November 11-17? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-11-23? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-09? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
FC Lorient vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Celta Vigo vs. Espanyol: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
SC Heerenveen vs. FC Groningen: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2025-11-29? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Celta Vigo vs. Espanyol: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 69% −$55
other 26% +$2
crypto 2% −$2
finance 2% −$7
world 1% +$19
tech 0% −$8
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3 42h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $3 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3 2d
Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $11B? BUY No 93¢ $2 3d
Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $9.75B? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 3d
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 79¢ $3 4d
Will Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 4d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 96¢ $2 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 64¢ $3 5d
Will Vail Resorts (MTN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 88¢ $1 5d
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 6d
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $25B? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $1 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 75¢ $1 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 61¢ $1 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 84¢ $3 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 82¢ $5 6d
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 6d
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 6d
Will Designer Brands (DBI) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 6d
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 6d
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 6d
Will Docusign (DOCU) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 9d
Will Samsara (IOT) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 9d
Rafael Jodar vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 61¢ $1 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 80¢ $3 11d
CD Leganés vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 13d
Real Zaragoza vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -88.7% -89.8% 9% 6% -93.0%
≤30d 205 -59.2% -63.1% 31% 26% -71.1%
≤90d 997 -12.1% -20.5% 63% 60% -23.6%
all 2121 -6.5% -15.4% 65% 63% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 63% -16.2%
10% -23.5% 52% -24.2%
15% -30.9% 32% -31.5%
20% -37.7% 19% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.73 · official $38.73 (match) · 3500 history records