Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:42:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
81 0x81e3…f2c9 sports 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,822 (-10%) realized −$1,820 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate57%52W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$644now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$530
7 days+$690
14 days+$693
30 days+$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$1,024
other 32% −$547
world 3% −$268
economics 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +122.1% +101.0% 100% 100% +44.3%
≤30d 10 +23.1% +11.4% 70% 50% +3.6%
≤90d 47 -19.4% -27.1% 60% 38% -16.0%
all 91 -20.8% -28.3% 57% 45% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 45% -18.6%
10% -35.2% 21% -26.4%
15% -41.5% 10% -33.5%
20% -47.2% 4% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$140 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$644
Realized−$1,820
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses52 / 39
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions5
Markets (closed)91 / 96
History coverage178d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? No 96¢ 96¢ $384 $382 −$2 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $175 $172 −$4 (-2%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $120 +$530 +442%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $353 +$47 +13%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $349 +$51 +14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $338 +$62 +18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $86 −$84 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $215 +$85 +40%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $231 −$230 -100%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $30 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $176 −$174 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $125 +$75 +60%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $131 +$19 +14%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $80 +$20 +24%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $131 −$128 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 21 $142 −$140 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $113 +$187 +165%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29? May 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $199 −$198 -99%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? May 16 $275 +$75 +27%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $74 −$72 -97%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $289 +$61 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in May 2026? May 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-09? May 08 $221 −$219 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $357 +$43 +12%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $342 +$58 +17%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $68 −$66 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A May 01 $280 +$20 +7%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 28 $271 +$29 +11%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 25 $231 +$19 +8%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $154 −$152 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 20 $71 −$69 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $216 −$215 -100%
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-04-17? Apr 20 $136 +$15 +11%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $171 −$170 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 13 $332 +$17 +5%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $79 −$77 -97%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 11 $193 +$12 +6%
Timberwolves vs. Pacers Apr 11 $306 +$44 +14%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 07 $122 −$120 -98%
Suns vs. Bulls Apr 07 $164 +$35 +21%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 07 $376 +$23 +6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Apr 02 $89 +$11 +12%
Hornets vs. Nets Apr 02 $418 +$31 +7%
Bulls vs. Thunder Mar 31 $428 +$22 +5%
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Mar 27 $93 +$7 +8%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 27 $336 +$64 +19%
Raptors vs. Jazz Mar 25 $387 +$63 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $384 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $179 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $353 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $120 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $349 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $338 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $86 7d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $215 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $15 16d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $25 19d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? BUY No 92¢ $231 23d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $47 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $176 27d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 62¢ $125 31d
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 87¢ $131 33d
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 80¢ $80 34d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 32¢ $131 36d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $142 36d
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29? BUY Yes $2 38d
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $199 38d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Golden Knights 37¢ $113 38d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes $74 41d
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $275 41d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 82¢ $289 46d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes $2 46d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes $2 46d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 73¢ $221 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $98 49d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $30 53d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 89¢ $357 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $644.05 · official $644.05 (match) · 170 history records