Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:49:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x81e1…5d5f crypto 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$128 (+0%) realized +$130 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%65W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$510per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$3,061now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$115
14 days+$115
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$116
crypto 25% +$4
sports 0% −$9
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 7 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 11 -6.8% -15.7% 91% 9% -8.7%
all 68 -3.8% -13.0% 96% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 1% -9.2%
10% -21.3% 0% -17.9%
15% -28.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.4 per $1 lost it wins $5.4
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$3,061
Realized+$130
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses65 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 71
History coverage201d
Avg bet$510
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,150 $2,149 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $573 $573 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $340 $339 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $3,023 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 17? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $2,991 +$59 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2,963 +$27 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2,949 +$15 +0%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 4? Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5 May 04 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 12? Apr 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 9? Mar 12 $13 $0 +0%
Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale? Mar 12 $17 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 8? Jan 09 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 7? Jan 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 7? Jan 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 7? Jan 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 7? Jan 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on January 8? Jan 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.40 on January 8? Jan 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $2,719 +$3 +0%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 3? Jan 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.90 and $2.00 on January 6? Jan 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 6? Jan 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on January 6? Jan 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 6? Jan 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 6? Jan 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 December 29-January 4? Jan 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 29-January 4? Jan 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $2,870 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 4? Jan 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 4? Jan 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 4? Jan 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on January 4? Jan 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 05 $2,804 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on January 3? Jan 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 3? Jan 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 04 $2,800 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.40 on January 2? Jan 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on January 2? Jan 02 $610 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on January 2? Jan 02 $719 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 02 $1,513 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 1? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on January 1? Jan 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 1? Jan 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.20 on January 1? Jan 02 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $1,294 +$1 +0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 01 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $573 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,150 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $340 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,023 42h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 42h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2,991 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,943 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,949 3d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $9 45d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $23 45d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $25 50d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $6 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 98d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? BUY No 97¢ $11 98d
Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale? BUY Yes 98¢ $17 160d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 9? BUY No 100¢ $13 160d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on January 8? BUY No 100¢ $29 161d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 7? BUY No 100¢ $13 161d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 8? BUY No 99¢ $4 161d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 7? BUY No 100¢ $8 161d
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.40 on January 8? BUY No 100¢ $100 161d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.90 and $2.00 on January 6? BUY No 100¢ $15 162d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on January 6? BUY No 100¢ $33 162d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 6? BUY No 100¢ $22 162d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 7? BUY No 100¢ $18 162d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 6? BUY No 100¢ $42 162d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 162d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 162d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,061.07 · official $3,061.07 (match) · 141 history records