Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:49:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x81e0…3420 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+15%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%25W / 24L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$42
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$27
sports 21% +$13
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +21.5% +10.0% 50% 50% +12.2%
≤30d 49 +14.0% +3.1% 51% 49% +7.6%
≤90d 49 +14.0% +3.1% 51% 49% +7.6%
all 49 +14.0% +3.1% 51% 49% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 49% +7.6%
10% -6.7% 47% -2.7%
15% -15.7% 45% -12.1%
20% -24.0% 35% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses25 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $32 +$16 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$4 +344%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$8 +388%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$6 +70%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +65%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +67%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$14 +442%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$14 -56%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$5 +40%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -92%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +36%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -76%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$4 +72%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$6 +237%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +220%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +205%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$3 -22%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +92%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $32 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 22h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 25h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records