Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
81 0x81de…4db7 crypto 603 markets active 5h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$237 (+5%) realized +$237 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%324W / 279L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$88
14 days−$59
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -11.9% -20.3% 51% 51% -26.1%
≤30d 325 -0.9% -10.3% 52% 52% -12.0%
≤90d 603 +4.3% -5.6% 54% 52% -6.3%
all 603 +4.3% -5.6% 54% 52% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 52% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 49% -15.3%
15% -22.9% 44% -23.5%
20% -30.5% 37% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$237
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses324 / 279
Open positions0
Markets (closed)603 / 603
History coverage74d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 603 Trades
no open positions (263 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$7 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$9 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$7 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$7 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$11 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$10 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$4 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$11 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$9 +160%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2281 history records