Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
81 0x81de…effe crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$250 (+8%) realized +$847 · open −$597
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +19.3% +7.9% 56% 50% +8.1%
≤30d 16 +19.3% +7.9% 56% 50% +8.1%
≤90d 16 +19.3% +7.9% 56% 50% +8.1%
all 16 +19.3% +7.9% 56% 50% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.9% 50% +8.1%
10% ← realistic here -2.4% 50% -2.3%
15% -11.8% 31% -11.7%
20% -20.5% 31% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$125 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$847
Unrealized−$597
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $600 $3 −$597 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $66 −$63 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $612 +$215 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$134 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $105 +$261 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $106 +$423 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $114 −$109 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $308 +$176 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$27 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $604 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $66 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $91 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $520 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $208 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $206 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $528 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $484 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.35 · official $493.03 · 30 history records