Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:42:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
81 0x81dd…90f6 sports 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 678d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$785 (-20%) realized −$767 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%25W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$300
14 days−$300
30 days−$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$105
other 21% −$198
economics 18% −$357
politics 7% −$4
world 5% −$163
culture 3% −$135
crypto 1% −$48
finance 1% +$3
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 61 -18.0% -25.8% 41% 36% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 36% -29.0%
10% -32.9% 34% -35.8%
15% -39.4% 30% -42.0%
20% -45.3% 28% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$54 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

678d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized−$767
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses25 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage678d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $275 $257 −$18 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get less Mar 16 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $9 −$9 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 9? Feb 09 $45 +$3 +6%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Flames vs. Canucks Nov 24 $35 −$35 -100%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Nov 23 $50 −$23 -46%
Eagles vs. Cowboys Nov 23 $100 +$47 +47%
Spread: Patriots (-7.5) Nov 23 $50 +$46 +92%
Falcons vs. Saints Nov 23 $75 −$40 -54%
Patriots vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5 Nov 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference? Oct 29 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press Oct 29 $50 +$31 +61%
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference? Oct 29 $50 +$92 +184%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference? Oct 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference? Oct 29 $10 −$10 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $300 −$300 -100%
Bears vs. Ravens Oct 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Texans vs. Seahawks Oct 21 $200 +$117 +59%
Commanders vs. Cowboys Oct 19 $200 +$170 +85%
Will Liverpool vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Oct 19 $100 +$67 +67%
Rams vs. Jaguars Oct 19 $100 +$54 +54%
Louisville vs. Miami Oct 18 $95 +$190 +200%
Dodgers vs. Brewers Oct 14 $100 +$33 +33%
Bears vs. Commanders Oct 14 $20 $0 +1%
Lightning vs. Bruins Oct 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bills vs. Falcons Oct 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Lions vs. Chiefs Oct 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Lebron announce final season Tuesday? Oct 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Lebron announce he is returning to Cavaliers Tuesday? Oct 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-28? Sep 29 $80 +$90 +113%
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 15? Sep 18 $70 +$11 +16%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House Nov 06 $15 +$8 +56%
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election? Nov 06 $46 −$22 -47%
Who will win white women? Nov 06 $25 −$21 -83%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $50 −$37 -75%
Commanders vs. Giants Nov 05 $30 +$15 +52%
Will JD Vance say "China" 5 or more times during the Joe Rogan podcast Oct 31 $10 +$20 +204%
Will JD Vance say "border" 20 or more times during the Joe Rogan podca Oct 31 $20 +$23 +116%
Will JD Vance say "JFK" during the Joe Rogan podcast? Oct 31 $30 +$16 +52%
Will JD Vance say "Russia" 5 or more times during the Joe Rogan podcas Oct 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will JD Vance say "McDonald's" during the Joe Rogan podcast? Oct 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will JD Vance say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Joe Rogan podcast? Oct 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $70 +$21 +31%
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" at his rally? Aug 18 $10 +$23 +232%
Will Trump say "Secret Service" at his rally? Aug 18 $10 +$32 +317%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $281 1h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 37¢ $103 3d
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 74¢ $202 3d
Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes $100 97d
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No $14 97d
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No $3 97d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 97d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 97d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 9? SELL Up 95¢ $48 131d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 9? BUY Up 90¢ $45 131d
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get less BUY No 97¢ $19 131d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 32¢ $200 133d
Flames vs. Canucks BUY Canucks 38¢ $35 209d
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? SELL Yes $27 209d
Eagles vs. Cowboys SELL Eagles 88¢ $147 209d
Spread: Patriots (-7.5) SELL Bengals 100¢ $96 209d
Falcons vs. Saints SELL Saints 25¢ $35 209d
Eagles vs. Cowboys BUY Eagles 60¢ $100 210d
Falcons vs. Saints BUY Saints 54¢ $75 210d
Patriots vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 210d
Spread: Patriots (-7.5) BUY Bengals 52¢ $50 210d
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press SELL Yes 100¢ $81 234d
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference? SELL No 99¢ $142 234d
Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference? SELL Yes 99¢ $130 234d
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference? BUY No 35¢ $50 234d
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press BUY Yes 62¢ $50 234d
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference? BUY No 21¢ $10 234d
Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 234d
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference? BUY No $10 234d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $100 235d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.94 · official $256.94 (match) · 106 history records