Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
81 0x81db…5f14 crypto 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$754per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,043now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$14
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$22
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-63.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 15 -46.6% -51.7% 53% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 20 -59.9% -63.7% 40% 0% -9.7%
all 20 -59.9% -63.7% 40% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -67.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -70.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -73.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,064) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -70% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$2,043
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage40d
Avg bet$754
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,035 $2,038 +$3 (+0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? Jun 04 $2,085 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $2,077 +$6 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2? Jun 02 $2,076 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1? Jun 02 $1,976 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on June 1? Jun 02 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 1? Jun 01 $2,068 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 31? Jun 01 $2,064 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30? May 31 $2,060 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 27? May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 23? May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 21? May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 18? May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 16? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,035 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY No $4 8d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 14? BUY Yes $6 11d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? BUY No $4 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? BUY Yes $4 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY Yes $4 17d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $5 20d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $2,085 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $2,077 22d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $2,076 23d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $97 23d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $1,976 23d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $2,068 24d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $2,064 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $2,060 26d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28? BUY Yes $4 28d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 27? BUY Yes $6 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? BUY Yes $4 31d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 23? BUY No $0 33d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 23? BUY No $0 33d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 23? BUY No $0 33d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 23? BUY No $0 33d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 23? BUY No $4 33d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 21? BUY No $4 35d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 18? BUY Yes $4 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 16? BUY Yes $4 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,043.45 · official $2,043.45 (match) · 34 history records