Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:43:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81da…8ed5 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$452 (-41%) realized −$448 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$9
14 days−$263
30 days−$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$228
crypto 4% −$11
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.3% -14.3% 73% 36% -6.9%
≤30d 29 -7.7% -16.5% 48% 28% -33.7%
≤90d 29 -7.7% -16.5% 48% 28% -33.7%
all 34 +14.7% +3.8% 53% 35% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 35% -30.0%
10% -6.1% 35% -36.7%
15% -15.2% 32% -42.8%
20% -23.5% 24% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$25 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$448
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage247d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 74¢ $39 $34 −$4 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $38 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $35 +$3 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 +$10 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 +$17 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$39 -64%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$15 +50%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$14 -87%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $241 −$230 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $191 +$11 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-10-26? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brighton win on 2025-10-25? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $1 +$7 +668%
Will West Ham win on 2025-10-24? Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? Oct 22 $20 +$12 +61%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? Oct 21 $13 +$7 +51%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? Oct 20 $12 +$5 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $39 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 99¢ $38 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $31 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 28¢ $6 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $24 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $60 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 8d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 8d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $171 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.43 · official $34.43 (match) · 85 history records