Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81d9…d2e8 world 25 markets active 16h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$2
other 19% −$1
finance 2% $0
sports 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 57% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 18 -5.6% -14.6% 50% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 24 -4.7% -13.8% 42% 4% -9.4%
all 25 -8.5% -17.2% 40% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 4% -10.0%
10% -25.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -32.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -39.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage482d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $41 −$2 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $45 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $69 −$2 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $36 +$2 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $56 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $76 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $1 −$1 -76%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $24 +$4 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $66 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $13 −$1 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $37 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $258 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $289 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 13 $539 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $9 $0 -5%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $9 −$1 -7%
Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State Mar 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $4 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $2 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $2 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $6 20h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $28 20h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $1 20h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $10 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $27 22h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $12 28h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $5 28h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $17 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 39h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $0 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $0 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $40 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $40 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $18 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $13 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $23 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.70 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records