Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81d6…835e crypto 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (145 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate77%41W / 12L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day145.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$27
world 1% $0
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (145 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +3.2% -6.6% 77% 55% -4.7%
≤30d 53 +3.2% -6.6% 77% 55% -4.7%
≤90d 53 +3.2% -6.6% 77% 55% -4.7%
all 53 +3.2% -6.6% 77% 55% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover145.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 55% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 26% -13.8%
15% -23.7% 15% -22.2%
20% -31.2% 13% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses41 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day145.4
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 62¢ 64¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +42%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $7 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $24 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $9 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $6 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.53 · official $3.53 (match) · 214 history records