Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

81 0x81d4…bb6e other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$63 (-5%) realized +$29 · open −$92

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip

Net edge+16%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate42%8W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$62per market

Trades / day3.4pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$185

7 days−$75

14 days−$75

30 days−$75

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)+21.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+33.8%	+21.0%	42%	42%	-15.8%
≤30d	19	+33.8%	+21.0%	42%	42%	-15.8%
≤90d	19	+33.8%	+21.0%	42%	42%	-15.8%
all	19	+33.8%	+21.0%	42%	42%	-15.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+21.0%	42%	-15.8%
10%	+9.4%	42%	-23.9%
15%	-1.1%	42%	-31.2%
20%	-10.8%	37%	-38.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 34% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +34% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +33% → late +34% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$55 vs −$47 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.85 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$83

Realized+$29

Unrealized−$92

Win rate (resolved)42%

Wins / losses8 / 11

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage8d

Avg bet$62

Trades / day3.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5	Over	39¢	18¢	$176	$83	−$92 (-53%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 29	$41	−$40	-98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$49	−$48	-98%
South Africa to score first vs. Canada?	Jun 28	$50	−$49	-98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$50	−$49	-98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5	Jun 27	$50	−$49	-98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$81	−$79	-98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$40	−$39	-98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	Jun 26	$26	−$26	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$119	+$69	+58%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France?	Jun 26	$21	+$20	+98%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$59	+$58	+98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$30	+$78	+262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$65	−$65	-99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$75	+$41	+55%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$102	+$72	+71%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$58	−$57	-98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals	Jun 23	$15	−$15	-98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$101	+$65	+65%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$74	+$36	+50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5	BUY Over	39¢	$179	1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$41	3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	20¢	$49	26h
South Africa to score first vs. Canada?	BUY Yes	34¢	$50	26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	27¢	$50	44h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5	BUY Over	19¢	$50	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	38¢	$81	2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	33¢	$40	2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	29¢	$26	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	95¢	$189	3d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France?	SELL Yes	10¢	$20	3d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France?	SELL Yes	10¢	$18	3d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France?	SELL Yes	9¢	$2	3d
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5	SELL Over	87¢	$117	3d
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$59	3d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	4¢	$21	3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND	BUY	38¢	$28	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	59¢	$119	5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	27¢	$30	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	59¢	$65	5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$75	5d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5	SELL Under	87¢	$174	6d
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5	BUY Over	43¢	$58	6d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5	BUY Under	50¢	$102	6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals	BUY Yes	32¢	$15	6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	60¢	$101	6d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY	66¢	$74	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.26 · official $81.01 · 31 history records