Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81cb…1b90 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% $0
politics 23% +$8
world 19% $0
crypto 14% +$1
sports 5% $0
culture 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -1.6% -11.0% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 5 -1.6% -11.0% 40% 0% -9.5%
all 35 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 9% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 9% -8.5%
10% -18.1% 6% -17.2%
15% -26.0% 3% -25.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage305d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $87 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $11 $0 +3%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $29 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $9 −$1 -13%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $5 $0 +9%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $5 $0 +7%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $28 +$1 +5%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 10 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 08 $27 +$9 +31%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $1 +$1 +42%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 24 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 US Open? Aug 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 23 $2 $0 +8%
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 US Open? Aug 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $118K on August 22? Aug 22 $39 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $27 30m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $27 2h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 21d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 179d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 208d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 80¢ $5 209d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 80¢ $4 209d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 80¢ $9 209d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 209d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 70¢ $6 209d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 209d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 70¢ $5 209d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 70¢ $1 209d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 267d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $28 282d
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th SELL No 96¢ $30 282d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records