Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x81c7…8017 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+13%) realized +$35 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$14
sports 38% +$39
crypto 4% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -16.0% -24.0% 39% 39% -0.5%
≤30d 37 -2.2% -11.5% 46% 43% +1.5%
≤90d 38 +2.8% -7.0% 47% 45% +2.9%
all 38 +2.8% -7.0% 47% 45% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 45% +2.9%
10% -15.9% 45% -7.0%
15% -24.0% 39% -16.0%
20% -31.5% 39% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage36d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 55¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 +$8 +83%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -10%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC København win on 2026-05-21? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$15 +152%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +82%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 +$11 +209%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 +$14 +90%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $11 +$3 +31%
Exact Score: Valencia CF 1 - 2 FC Barcelona? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 +$1 +138%
Will Girona FC vs. Elche CF end in a draw? May 23 $1 +$1 +130%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 $0 -6%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 23 $1 $0 +32%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 21 $2 $0 +6%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $2 +$4 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $35 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 5h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 26h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 28h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 47h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY 4¢ $1 2d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $18 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 42¢ $16 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 4d
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 4d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 6d
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $15 6d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $11 19d
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 26d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.99 · official $35.99 (match) · 78 history records