Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
81 0x81c4…3d41 sports 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$187 (-0%) realized −$188 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate19%23W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$660per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,042now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$11
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$39
politics 35% −$32
sports 18% −$182
world 5% −$1
economics 1% +$2
culture 1% −$1
finance 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 69 -11.1% -19.6% 10% 7% -10.5%
all 119 -0.9% -10.3% 19% 15% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 15% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 15% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 12% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$849) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$8 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,042
Realized−$188
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses23 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)119 / 121
History coverage123d
Avg bet$660
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $556 $557 +$1 (+0%)
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $485 $485 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $429 +$2 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,163 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,599 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,905 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,310 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $517 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $423 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,269 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 22 $368 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,487 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,773 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,204 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,739 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1,364 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2,575 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $455 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $1,897 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $536 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $1,161 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $402 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $2,447 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $402 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $1,146 −$1 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $450 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $931 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $528 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $2,198 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $1,298 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $1,315 −$1 -0%
Will Ukraine vs. Sweden end in a draw? Mar 27 $54 +$22 +41%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $629 −$1 -0%
Bulls vs. 76ers Mar 26 $71 +$32 +45%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $1,442 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Jets Mar 25 $36 +$41 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $485 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $556 26h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $539 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $539 4d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $586 4d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $587 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $677 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $678 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $486 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $487 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $512 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $513 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $583 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $584 11d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $582 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $583 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $524 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $525 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $504 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $506 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $516 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $517 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $422 18d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $423 18d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $469 20d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $469 20d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $596 21d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $597 21d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $486 21d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $487 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,042.04 · official $1,042.04 (match) · 395 history records