Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:28:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
81 0x81c4…c8ef crypto 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%90W / 19L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day48.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 +0.8% -8.8% 83% 83% -4.1%
≤30d 109 +0.8% -8.8% 83% 83% -4.1%
≤90d 109 +0.8% -8.8% 83% 83% -4.1%
all 109 +0.8% -8.8% 83% 83% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 83% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 28% -13.3%
15% -25.5% 5% -21.7%
20% -32.8% 4% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses90 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day48.5
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records