Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x81c1…5c7d sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$955 (+3%) realized +$1,474 · open −$519
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate58%33W / 24L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$548per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3,160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,785
7 days−$161
14 days+$277
30 days+$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$685
other 22% +$1,457
world 2% −$497
crypto 1% −$186
finance 0% +$41
politics 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -16.1% -24.1% 62% 62% -10.5%
≤30d 25 -14.3% -22.5% 64% 64% -8.0%
≤90d 41 -33.7% -40.1% 46% 44% -14.0%
all 57 -21.2% -28.7% 58% 46% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 46% -7.4%
10% -35.5% 35% -16.3%
15% -41.8% 14% -24.4%
20% -47.5% 2% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$220 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$3,160
Realized+$1,474
Unrealized−$519
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses33 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage148d
Avg bet$548
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $3,184 $3,157 −$27 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 55¢ $496 $3 −$492 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $799 −$634 -79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,744 +$1,204 +44%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2,399 −$2,399 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $251 +$43 +17%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,805 +$551 +30%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,556 +$352 +23%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$79 -79%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 +$12 +24%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $151 +$46 +31%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $402 +$74 +18%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $761 +$296 +39%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $154 −$150 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $357 +$92 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $672 +$292 +43%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $453 +$151 +33%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $252 +$61 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $672 +$307 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $45 −$45 -99%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $251 −$250 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $573 +$233 +41%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,495 +$438 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 02 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 02 $199 −$187 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 02 $65 +$134 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 02 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 01 $124 +$41 +33%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 31? Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Mar 25 $210 −$210 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 25 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 25 $69 −$69 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Mar 25 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Mar 25 $107 −$83 -77%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Mar 25 $418 −$418 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challen Mar 25 $22 +$2 +10%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $2,495 +$967 +39%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 20 $5,990 +$309 +5%
LoL: Andromeda Gaming vs CITA Kaizen (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Group St Feb 04 $399 +$19 +5%
LoL: LNG Esports vs Ultra Prime (BO3) Feb 03 $298 +$12 +4%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challenge Feb 03 $255 +$43 +17%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 03 $20 −$5 -25%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Feb 03 $25 −$9 -37%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 02 $220 +$35 +16%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Feb 02 $199 +$41 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $2,262 34m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 16¢ $165 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $799 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $950 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,948 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $2,146 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $419 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $179 21h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $2,399 43h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 85¢ $251 43h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,356 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1,805 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 28¢ $102 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,908 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1,556 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 16¢ $21 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $62 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $50 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $151 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 70¢ $560 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $201 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 4d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 79¢ $101 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $101 4d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 86¢ $301 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 4d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $449 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $964 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,159.71 · official $3,160.16 (match) · 130 history records