Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x81ba…6628
sports · 28 markets active 0h ago
7.5score
+$23 +66%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$24 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 16 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? No 38¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 85¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Ajla Tomljanovic 36¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 27¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? No 50¢ 45¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 38¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-49%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 38¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-49%)
Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates in June? Yes 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 55¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Florent Bax 45¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Leylah Fernandez 71¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +129%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $1 +$1 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$1 +54%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $2 +$9 +442%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +122%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $2 +$8 +392%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $2 +$4 +189%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 67% +$23
politics 15% $0
other 15% +$1
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 36¢ $1 0m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY St. Louis Cardinals 41¢ $1 0m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 44¢ $1 1m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 22h
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 43¢ $1 22h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 40¢ $1 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 22h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 23h
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 57¢ $1 27h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 58¢ $1 27h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 32¢ $1 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 38¢ $1 27h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 27h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 47h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $1 47h
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 47h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 47h
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax BUY Florent Bax 45¢ $1 47h
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 18¢ $1 47h
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 18¢ $1 47h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 55¢ $1 47h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 47h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 10¢ $1 3d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 17¢ $1 3d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 71¢ $1 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 80¢ $1 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 45¢ $1 3d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 57¢ $1 3d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+85.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +105.3% +85.8% 75% 75% +123.8%
≤30d 12 +105.3% +85.8% 75% 75% +123.8%
≤90d 12 +105.3% +85.8% 75% 75% +123.8%
all 12 +105.3% +85.8% 75% 75% +123.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +85.8% 75% +123.8%
10% +68.0% 75% +102.4%
15% +51.8% 75% +82.8%
20% +36.9% 75% +64.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.99 · official $15.99 (match) · 43 history records