Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:51:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x81b7…05c8
crypto · 26 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$3 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses22 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day90.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +5.3% -4.8% 85% 54% -2.2%
≤30d 26 +5.3% -4.8% 85% 54% -2.2%
≤90d 26 +5.3% -4.8% 85% 54% -2.2%
all 26 +5.3% -4.8% 85% 54% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover90.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 54% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 15% -11.5%
15% -22.2% 0% -20.1%
20% -29.8% 0% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records