Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:44:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81b7…07cc other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+4%) realized −$30 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$555now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -26.2% -33.2% 33% 33% +2.8%
≤30d 3 -26.2% -33.2% 33% 33% +2.8%
≤90d 3 -26.2% -33.2% 33% 33% +2.8%
all 3 -26.2% -33.2% 33% 33% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 33% +2.8%
10% -39.6% 33% -7.1%
15% -45.4% 33% -16.0%
20% -50.8% 33% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$22 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$555
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 97¢ $100 $139 +$39 (+39%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 55¢ 64¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 87¢ 88¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 63¢ 64¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $31 −$13 -43%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$65 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 87¢ $101 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 55¢ $102 1h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 63¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 9¢ $18 27h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 28h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.92 · official $554.92 (match) · 10 history records