Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
81 0x81b6…e033 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15,617 (-89%) realized −$15,615 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,913per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 223d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$14,158
crypto 18% −$1,499
other 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-49.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% -20.4%
≤30d 2 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% -20.4%
≤90d 2 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% -20.4%
all 5 -44.2% -49.5% 40% 20% -91.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.5% 20% -91.0%
10% ← realistic here -54.3% 20% -91.9%
15% -58.8% 20% -92.7%
20% -62.8% 20% -93.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$5,279 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$15,615
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage223d
Avg bet$2,913
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 55¢ 54¢ $90 $87 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $54 +$38 +70%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Dec 05 $1,630 −$1,630 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 5? Dec 05 $1,499 +$131 +9%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $14,155 −$14,155 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $91 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $54 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1,630 194d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 5? SELL No 100¢ $1,630 194d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 5? BUY No 92¢ $1,499 194d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 42¢ $13,158 220d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 38¢ $997 222d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.35 · official $87.35 (match) · 10 history records