Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
81 0x81b3…eee8 crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$35 (+5%) realized +$31 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate90%9W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$222
7 days+$266
14 days+$266
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$198
other 36% −$124
world 10% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +66.8% +50.9% 100% 78% +34.4%
≤30d 10 +50.1% +35.8% 90% 70% +5.8%
≤90d 10 +50.1% +35.8% 90% 70% +5.8%
all 10 +50.1% +35.8% 90% 70% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.8% 70% +5.8%
10% +22.8% 60% -4.3%
15% +10.9% 50% -13.6%
20% +0.1% 50% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$148 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses9 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage28d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 86¢ 93¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $145 +$100 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$18 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $68 +$55 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$14 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 +$44 +112%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? May 26 $151 −$148 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 11h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $124 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 17h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $123 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $68 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $8 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 44h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $5 44h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $30 44h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 72¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $47 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 2d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? BUY Yes 19¢ $49 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $39 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.03 · official $64.00 (match) · 41 history records