Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:12:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
81 0x81b2…c4b1 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$345 (+14%) realized +$347 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$391
7 days+$854
14 days+$811
30 days+$811
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$475
other 49% +$380
world 2% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +70.9% +54.6% 83% 83% +66.7%
≤30d 9 +36.7% +23.7% 67% 67% +53.7%
≤90d 9 +36.7% +23.7% 67% 67% +53.7%
all 9 +36.7% +23.7% 67% 67% +53.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.7% 67% +53.7%
10% +11.9% 67% +39.0%
15% +1.0% 67% +25.6%
20% -8.9% 56% +13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$49 · ×3.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.55 per $1 lost it wins $6.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$347
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 19
History coverage11d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $153 +$237 +155%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $152 +$154 +101%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $303 +$138 +46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $202 +$136 +67%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $153 +$239 +156%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $47 −$45 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $152 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY 38¢ $153 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Argentina vs. Austria: BUY 41¢ $204 18h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $152 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 42¢ $203 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $339 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $202 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $103 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 21¢ $102 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 27¢ $102 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 33¢ $102 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 38¢ $153 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $47 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 37¢ $102 8d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY 24¢ $51 9d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will S BUY 35¢ $102 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.50 · official $151.50 · 26 history records