Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
81 0x81b0…d27c other 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$73 (-1%) realized −$91 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%60W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$43
sports 22% −$33
world 1% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +11.9% +1.3% 56% 56% -8.1%
≤30d 12 -5.0% -14.1% 50% 50% -9.4%
≤90d 20 +21.0% +9.5% 65% 65% +1.7%
all 97 +10.9% +0.4% 62% 62% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 62% -9.9%
10% -9.2% 56% -18.5%
15% -18.0% 44% -26.4%
20% -26.0% 32% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$43 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses60 / 37
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage228d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $81 +$51 +63%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $40 +$23 +58%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $47 +$31 +67%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $71 −$25 -35%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $88 −$39 -45%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $171 −$83 -49%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $121 +$51 +42%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$21 +105%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 28 $8 −$8 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 May 27 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $16 +$4 +28%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $35 +$60 +170%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Mar 22 $60 +$37 +62%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $26 +$7 +28%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $16 +$11 +70%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $6 +$10 +163%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $94 −$94 -100%
Will PSV win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $20 −$14 -71%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-22? Jan 22 $78 +$30 +38%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Jan 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Jan 01 $80 −$64 -80%
Will Cameroon win on 2025-12-31? Dec 31 $53 +$28 +52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2025-12-31? Dec 31 $300 −$247 -82%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $50 −$25 -50%
Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 Dec 30 $4 +$2 +55%
Will DR Congo win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $279 +$40 +14%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-12-27? Dec 30 $233 +$50 +22%
Will Algeria win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $50 +$41 +82%
Atalanta BC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5 Dec 28 $248 −$106 -43%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $230 +$69 +30%
Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 27 $50 −$6 -13%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $172 +$64 +37%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $108 +$64 +60%
Will Morocco win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $276 −$276 -100%
Will Cameroon vs. Gabon end in a draw? Dec 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cameroon win on 2025-12-24? Dec 24 $25 +$16 +65%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2025-12-24? Dec 24 $50 +$23 +45%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-12-22? Dec 22 $177 +$64 +36%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-12-22? Dec 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $5 +$6 +117%
Genoa CFC vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Dec 21 $50 +$14 +29%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $61 +$44 +71%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $80 +$21 +26%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $53 +$9 +16%
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 2.5 Dec 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $132 38m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $81 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $64 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $20 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $40 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $47 24h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $46 24h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $71 26h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 26h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Over 33¢ $49 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $88 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $88 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $171 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Thunder 74¢ $8 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 75¢ $6 22d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 29d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 65¢ $32 74d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? SELL Yes 81¢ $32 78d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 78d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? SELL Yes 88¢ $20 83d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 69¢ $16 83d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 37¢ $35 86d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 46¢ $33 88d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $33 88d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $26 88d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) SELL Paris Saint-Germain FC 43¢ $26 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.68 · official $167.68 (match) · 188 history records