Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:21:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

81 0x81b0…aebe sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$473 (+11%) realized +$565 · open −$92

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip

Net edge-53%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%6W / 12L

Drawdown75%max

Avg bet$231per market

Trades / day1.2pace

Fees−$47est.

Kalshi-fit89%portable

Net worth$1,218now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$401

7 days+$318

14 days+$180

30 days+$177

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-52.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	-22.5%	-29.9%	50%	50%	+0.7%
≤30d	17	-44.7%	-49.9%	35%	35%	-4.3%
≤90d	18	-47.7%	-52.7%	33%	33%	-4.3%
all	18	-47.7%	-52.7%	33%	33%	-4.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-52.7%	33%	-4.3%
10%	-57.2%	28%	-13.5%
15%	-61.4%	28%	-21.8%
20%	-65.2%	17%	-29.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 65% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -48% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -64% → late -32% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$188 vs −$80 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.18 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage

Net worth$1,218

Realized+$565

Unrealized−$92

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses6 / 12

Est. fees paid−$47

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage31d

Avg bet$231

Trades / day1.2

Drawdown75%

Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	64¢	60¢	$1,310	$1,218	−$92 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	Jun 24	$289	−$285	-99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$120	−$120	-100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$124	−$124	-100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 22	$272	+$128	+47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 20	$207	+$197	+95%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 20	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$151	+$32	+21%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$1,053	+$519	+49%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$203	−$200	-98%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$357	+$221	+62%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$36	−$35	-98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$4	−$3	-97%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia?	Jun 14	$81	−$80	-99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5	Jun 06	$51	+$33	+66%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5	May 30	$36	−$36	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	May 24	$2	−$2	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	64¢	$1,314	18m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	65¢	$4	19m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	65¢	$7	20m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	57¢	$289	1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	30¢	$31	23h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	30¢	$8	23h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	30¢	$72	23h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	30¢	$1	23h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	30¢	$8	23h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	31¢	$124	23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$95	2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$2	2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$173	2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$2	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$104	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$104	3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$51	3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	82¢	$151	4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	67¢	$1,041	5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	67¢	$2	5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	67¢	$10	5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	49¢	$203	5d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	61¢	$357	6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	16¢	$10	8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	50¢	$36	9d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$4	9d
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia?	BUY Yes	63¢	$81	10d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	11d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5	SELL Under	99¢	$84	17d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5	BUY Under	59¢	$51	17d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,217.90 · official $1,238.37 · 44 history records