Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x81b0…858c sports 342 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,510 (+3%) realized +$2,211 · open +$299
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%171W / 169L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$1,061est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$302
7 days−$748
14 days−$1,002
30 days−$930
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$3,355
other 4% −$845
world 1% −$89
crypto 0% +$1
politics 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -9.4% -18.1% 36% 36% -19.1%
≤30d 123 +3.0% -6.8% 48% 48% -12.1%
≤90d 340 +3.9% -6.0% 50% 49% -6.9%
all 340 +3.9% -6.0% 50% 49% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 49% -6.9%
10% -15.0% 49% -15.8%
15% -23.2% 48% -24.0%
20% -30.8% 46% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$212 vs −$203 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$1,299
Realized+$2,211
Unrealized+$299
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses171 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$1,061
Open positions2
Markets (closed)340 / 342
History coverage68d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 55¢ 100¢ $500 $909 +$409 (+82%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ 38¢ $500 $391 −$109 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $254 +$274 +108%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $614 −$600 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $254 +$278 +109%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $234 −$230 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $254 −$250 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 17 $255 +$386 +152%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $354 +$249 +70%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $254 +$341 +134%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $203 +$273 +134%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $254 +$267 +105%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $152 +$121 +79%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $128 +$748 +583%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $254 −$250 -98%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 14 $255 −$250 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $254 +$301 +119%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $254 −$250 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $203 +$182 +90%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $355 −$350 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $152 −$150 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $355 −$350 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $178 +$187 +105%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$142 +140%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $253 +$210 +83%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $254 −$250 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $127 +$220 +172%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $355 +$373 +105%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $152 +$154 +101%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $273 −$270 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $332 −$325 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $518 +$502 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $305 −$300 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $533 +$496 +93%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 07 $153 −$150 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $254 −$250 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 07 $255 −$250 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 07 $254 −$250 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $507 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 23¢ $614 21h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 37¢ $234 28h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $254 28h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 41¢ $204 28h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $254 28h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $254 31h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 41h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 41h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $153 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $152 45h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 39¢ $255 45h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $354 45h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $254 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $203 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $254 3d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 46¢ $152 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $152 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $876 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $128 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $254 3d
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 28¢ $255 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $254 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $102 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $355 5d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $254 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $152 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,299.26 · official $1,299.26 (match) · 651 history records