Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81ad…54c9 crypto 201 markets active 2d ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$118 (-5%) realized −$118 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate47%94W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$10
14 days+$56
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$196
sports 30% +$53
other 4% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +0.1% -9.5% 57% 37% -4.3%
≤30d 121 +25.3% +13.4% 50% 35% -4.4%
≤90d 201 +11.0% +0.4% 47% 32% -16.8%
all 201 +11.0% +0.4% 47% 32% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.4% 32% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -9.2% 23% -24.7%
15% -18.0% 17% -32.0%
20% -26.0% 12% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses94 / 107
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)201 / 201
History coverage60d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 201 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 15-21? Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 21? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Jun 16 $1 $0 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -72%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 15? Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$8 +134%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $3 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? SELL No 8¢ $4 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? SELL No 97¢ $2 45h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 45h
Will Solana dip to $60 June 15-21? SELL No 97¢ $1 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? SELL No 96¢ $5 45h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL No 4¢ $0 45h
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL No 88¢ $7 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 95¢ $4 45h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? SELL No 1¢ $0 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 45h
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? SELL No 80¢ $1 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $0 45h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 94¢ $6 45h
Will Solana reach $90 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 45h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? SELL Yes 98¢ $6 45h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 21? SELL No 98¢ $1 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL No 2¢ $0 45h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 45h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? SELL No 98¢ $1 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? SELL No 5¢ $2 45h
Will Solana reach $100 in June? SELL No 98¢ $1 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $3 45h
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 9¢ $1 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 9¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1432 history records