Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x81ab…0d04
other · 64 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$20 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$65
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses15 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage598d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 1 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 05 $38 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 28 $17 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $243 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 18 $106 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 18 $11 +$6 +60%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $109 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $223 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $107 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $105 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $108 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 26 $116 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $115 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $109 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $117 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $108 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $110 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $117 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $117 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $110 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 +$5 +76%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $11 +$8 +72%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $8 +$10 +124%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $9 +$4 +46%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $15 +$4 +29%
Flames vs. Golden Knights Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Apr 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Apr 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 02 $27 +$24 +91%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Mar 30 $14 +$49 +354%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 25 $20 +$25 +122%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 73% −$14
politics 11% −$8
other 10% −$18
sports 3% +$58
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 4h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $65 6h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 8d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $17 17d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $17 17d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $20 17d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $20 17d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $38 18d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $24 19d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 19d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 22d
Will Solana reach $140 in May? BUY No 100¢ $28 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 22d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $21 23d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $21 23d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 24d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 25d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 26d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 26d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $107 26d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $107 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $106 27d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $106 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 +3.6% -6.2% 19% 6% -8.8%
≤90d 50 +7.4% -2.8% 26% 18% -8.4%
all 63 +5.8% -4.3% 24% 14% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 14% -9.4%
10% -13.5% 14% -18.1%
15% -21.8% 13% -26.0%
20% -29.5% 11% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.43 · official $65.43 (match) · 268 history records