Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81a3…8bf9 crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-13%) realized −$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day67.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$4
world 27% −$25
sports 14% −$10
other 5% +$21
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +40.4% +27.0% 45% 45% -28.5%
≤30d 20 +40.4% +27.0% 45% 45% -28.5%
≤90d 20 +40.4% +27.0% 45% 45% -28.5%
all 20 +40.4% +27.0% 45% 45% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.0% 45% -28.5%
10% ← realistic here +14.8% 45% -35.3%
15% +3.8% 35% -41.6%
20% -6.4% 30% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +84% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)20 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day67.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 58¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$22 +1116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +92%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.41 · official $7.18 (match) · 81 history records