Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81a2…a062 crypto 1076 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (2178 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$590 (-11%) realized −$585 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate72%865W / 337L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2178.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$709
other 6% +$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2178 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1202 +41.4% +28.0% 72% 62% -0.7%
≤30d 1202 +41.4% +28.0% 72% 62% -0.7%
≤90d 1202 +41.4% +28.0% 72% 62% -0.7%
all 1202 +41.4% +28.0% 72% 62% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2178.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.0% 62% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here +15.7% 60% -10.2%
15% +4.5% 57% -18.9%
20% -5.7% 54% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized−$585
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses865 / 337
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1202 / 1076
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2178.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 48¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+4%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 48¢ 48¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 48¢ 48¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 50¢ 51¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 475 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$10 +92%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +108%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +92%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +96%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +113%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +100%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +108%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +108%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +92%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 7m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 7m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $0 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 11m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 12m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $0 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.57 · official $140.54 · 3500 history records