Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:47:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
81 0x819f…70bc other 265 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$74,286 (-112%) realized −$73,422 · open −$864
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate23%154W / 511L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day90.1pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$11,239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$424
sports 43% −$168
world 4% +$58
crypto 1% +$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 508 -5.6% -14.6% 15% 12% -23.1%
≤30d 665 -3.9% -13.1% 23% 17% -14.8%
≤90d 665 -3.9% -13.1% 23% 17% -14.8%
all 665 -3.9% -13.1% 23% 17% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 17% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 11% -23.0%
15% -29.0% 7% -30.4%
20% -36.0% 5% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +429327% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +429327% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -23% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,021,032 vs −$62 · ×32729.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10792.89 per $1 lost it wins $10792.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$11,239
Realized−$73,422
Unrealized−$864
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses154 / 511
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions33
Markets (closed)665 / 265
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$251
Trades / day90.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 80¢ 99¢ $2,400 $2,974 +$574 (+24%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $1,000 $1,078 +$78 (+8%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 95¢ 97¢ $1,000 $1,019 +$19 (+2%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 50¢ 96¢ $133 $255 +$122 (+91%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? No 50¢ 91¢ $133 $243 +$109 (+82%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 50¢ 84¢ $133 $225 +$92 (+69%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 50¢ 84¢ $133 $223 +$89 (+67%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? No 50¢ 80¢ $133 $215 +$81 (+61%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? No 50¢ 80¢ $133 $212 +$79 (+59%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 50¢ 76¢ $133 $204 +$71 (+53%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 50¢ 76¢ $133 $204 +$71 (+53%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? No 50¢ 76¢ $133 $201 +$68 (+51%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 50¢ 96¢ $100 $192 +$92 (+92%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 50¢ 96¢ $100 $192 +$92 (+92%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? No 50¢ 72¢ $133 $191 +$57 (+43%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? No 50¢ 92¢ $100 $183 +$83 (+83%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? No 50¢ 90¢ $100 $181 +$81 (+81%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 50¢ 90¢ $100 $179 +$79 (+79%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 50¢ 88¢ $100 $177 +$77 (+77%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 50¢ 86¢ $100 $173 +$73 (+73%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 50¢ 80¢ $100 $159 +$59 (+59%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 50¢ 78¢ $100 $155 +$55 (+55%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? No 50¢ 76¢ $100 $153 +$53 (+53%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? No 50¢ 52¢ $133 $140 +$7 (+5%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 50¢ 60¢ $102 $123 +$21 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 435 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-05-03? Jun 20 $67 +$67 +100%
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-05-03? Jun 20 $17 +$14 +82%
Will Morocco vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $48 −$131 -272%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? Jun 20 $77 −$107 -140%
Will Elche CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 20 $9 −$2 -24%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-02-15? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Red Wings vs. Senators Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-01-24? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Salford City FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will US Avellino 1912 win on 2026-04-11? Jun 20 $49 −$84 -174%
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Russia win on 2026-03-31? Jun 20 $46 −$7 -14%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-01-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-03-28? Jun 20 $6 +$31 +490%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-02-07? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 20 $0 +$31 +7428%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-01-25? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw? Jun 20 $16 −$32 -197%
Will Georgia win on 2026-03-26? Jun 20 $9 −$5 -54%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-21? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-02-15? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre vs. Paris FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-03-06? Jun 20 $0 −$12 -4692%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $27 −$73 -272%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-04-18? Jun 20 $19 −$58 -308%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $95 −$152 -160%
Will Watford FC vs. Sheffield United FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $49 −$57 -117%
Will Brentford FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw? Jun 20 $0 −$78 -26797%
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-04-03? Jun 20 $14 −$15 -103%
Knicks vs. Hornets Jun 20 $42 −$48 -113%
Will Girona FC vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $46 −$48 -104%
Will US Avellino 1912 vs. Delfino Pescara 1936 end in a draw? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Frosinone Calcio vs. Calcio Padova end in a draw? Jun 20 $43 −$77 -178%
Will Norwich City FC vs. Coventry City FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Jun 20 $81 −$88 -109%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-02-20? Jun 20 $0 −$33 -73433%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-05? Jun 20 $32 −$58 -181%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-01-31? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-02-27? Jun 20 $0 −$40 -16080%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 58¢ $14 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 57¢ $14 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 25¢ $17 3h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 3h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $14 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $14 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 62¢ $14 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 48¢ $19 6h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 6h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 6h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 65¢ $16 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $13 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $5 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 8h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 89¢ $19 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 89¢ $19 8h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 9h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 9h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 9h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 9h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 9h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 9h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,239.11 · official $11,237.53 (match) · 3500 history records