Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x819f…547b weather 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 80% −$6
tech 17% $0
world 2% $0
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -12.5% -20.8% 73% 7% -12.6%
≤30d 15 -12.5% -20.8% 73% 7% -12.6%
≤90d 15 -12.5% -20.8% 73% 7% -12.6%
all 15 -12.5% -20.8% 73% 7% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 7% -12.6%
10% -28.4% 0% -21.0%
15% -35.3% 0% -28.6%
20% -41.7% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Warsh say "Rate" or "Cut" during June Press Conference? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Yes 80¢ 73¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Natural Disaster in 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $55 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 27h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 30h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $50 30h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 35h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? SELL No 94¢ $5 3d
Will Warsh say "Rate" or "Cut" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 3d
Will Warsh say "Rate" or "Cut" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 3d
Will Warsh say "Rate" or "Cut" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 3d
Will Warsh say "Rate" or "Cut" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 3d
Natural Disaster in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 4d
Will Warsh say "Rate" or "Cut" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.50 · official $81.52 (match) · 46 history records