Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x819d…8d4c crypto 125 markets active 5d ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$450 (+3%) realized +$438 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%56W / 68L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$568
14 days−$598
30 days−$598
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$547
sports 27% −$306
other 13% +$270
world 3% +$639
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -12.7% -21.0% 35% 30% -22.4%
≤30d 54 -10.5% -19.0% 52% 37% -13.8%
≤90d 104 -5.2% -14.2% 47% 38% -10.3%
all 124 -7.6% -16.4% 45% 38% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 38% -7.4%
10% -24.4% 30% -16.2%
15% -31.7% 25% -24.3%
20% -38.4% 23% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$43 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized+$438
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses56 / 68
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage104d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$8 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$10 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$11 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$31 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$86 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $57 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $129 +$119 +92%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $151 −$7 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $208 −$130 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $410 −$203 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $272 −$153 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $205 −$26 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $418 −$158 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $53 +$50 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $207 +$36 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $300 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $130 +$75 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $103 +$87 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$18 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $337 +$18 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $104 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $104 −$79 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $208 +$125 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $103 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$40 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $205 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $105 +$88 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $310 +$60 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $206 −$92 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $156 +$18 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $104 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 09 $206 −$38 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $103 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $129 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $103 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $102 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $104 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $103 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $233 −$67 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $101 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 09 $129 +$18 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $206 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 09 $130 −$121 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 09 $310 +$45 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $78 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $77 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $37 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $248 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.73 · official $211.73 (match) · 346 history records