Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x819d…725f crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$223 (-8%) realized −$223 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day152.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$402
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -20.2% -27.8% 56% 27% -24.7%
≤30d 41 -20.2% -27.8% 56% 27% -24.7%
≤90d 41 -20.2% -27.8% 56% 27% -24.7%
all 41 -20.2% -27.8% 56% 27% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.8% 27% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -34.7% 20% -31.9%
15% -41.0% 10% -38.5%
20% -46.8% 2% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$30 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage1d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day152.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$9 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $87 −$55 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $127 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $407 −$67 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $304 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $206 +$26 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $279 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $72 −$38 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $61 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $76 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $9 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $22 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $30 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $22 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 185 history records