Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
81 0x819c…4899 other 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%38W / 52L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$6
politics 29% +$5
sports 22% −$1
economics 12% −$8
other 5% −$3
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 11 -0.8% -10.3% 36% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 23 -1.5% -10.8% 30% 0% -9.6%
all 90 +1.5% -8.2% 42% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 2% -9.5%
10% -16.9% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.0% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.3% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses38 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage466d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $188 $188 +$0 (+0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 65¢ 66¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $358 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $187 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $184 +$3 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $329 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $293 +$2 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $8 −$1 -11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $160 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $17 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $39 −$8 -20%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $825 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,058 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 13 $483 +$2 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $1,130 −$8 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $78 −$2 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $1,341 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,066 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 10 $1,064 +$4 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 12 $14 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 12 $4 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $19 $0 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 10 $19 $0 -1%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $4 $0 +7%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 09 $20 $0 -2%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 09 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in Jul 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $188 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $171 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $171 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $188 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $187 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $187 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $187 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $45 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $26 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $187 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $184 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $167 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $10 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $134 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $24 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $113 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $44 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $12 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.72 · official $187.57 (match) · 296 history records