Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x819c…5e17 other 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 243L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$33
sports 22% −$15
politics 9% −$6
crypto 8% −$5
culture 7% −$8
economics 6% −$5
world 4% −$26
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 91 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 188 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.3% -9.8% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 243
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage129d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $434 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $127 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $394 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $119 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $190 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $137 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $293 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $255 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $301 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $393 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $246 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $308 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $387 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $313 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $395 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $136 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $293 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $237 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $573 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $174 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $236 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $294 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $353 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $116 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $142 $0 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $84 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $175 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $74 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $156 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $124 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $155 $0 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $31 3h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $31 4h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $31 6h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $31 6h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $31 7h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 10h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 11h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $31 14h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $31 15h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 16h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 18h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $31 20h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $31 22h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $31 23h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $31 25h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $31 26h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $31 27h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $31 29h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $31 31h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 32h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 34h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $31 35h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $31 36h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 38h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 40h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 41h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 43h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 45h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1445 history records